Norwegian Climate Prediction Model: Difference between revisions

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| F19_tn21 || SST || 30 || anom || all  || fixenkf || yes || point || no || 1995 || Finished || none || small drift in MSL, good SPG
| F19_tn21 || SST || 30 || anom || all  || fixenkf || yes || point || no || 1995 || Finished  || small drift in MSL, good SPG
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! Third Try
! Third Try

Revision as of 14:02, 6 November 2014

PLEASE READ THIS BEFORE EDITING

The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) is aiming at providing prediction from seasonal-to-decadal time scale. It is based on the Norwegian earth system model ([1]) and the Ensemble Kalman Filter ([2]) data assimilation method. NorESM is a state of the art Earth system model that is based on CESM ([3]), but that used different Aerosol/chemistry scheme and ocean model ( evolve from the MICOM). The EnKF is a sequential data assimilation method that allows for fully multivariate and flow dependent correct using the covariance matrix from a Monte-carlo model integration.

Coming here:


News

Model releases

Prediction activities

The optimal goal is to test the capability of our system on disparate phase of the climate in order to gain confidence on the robustnes of its accuracy. SST is the only observational data set available for a period of time sufficient (> 100 years) to clearly demonstrate skill for decadal prediction.

Model-model prediction with assimilation of synthetic SST data

Evaluation of prediction hindcast simulations with real SST data

The observational data set used so far is the ensemble of SST data (refereed as HADISST2), which provide monthly SST for 1850--2007 with 10 members. Each member reconstructs SST using a different set of possible estimate of unknown parameter. At term we intend to perform retrospective decadal prediction (hindcast) over the last century, but here we have decided to focus on a shorter period (1980-2005) first as there are many independent observation during this period of time. Following is a table that summarise the different experiment run so far:

Multiplication table
Name on Norstore NorESM version observation ens size full_field/anom ocean var updated post process Masked coast localisation Atmo nudging Prediction Finished/Ongoing Remark
First Try F19_tn21 SST 30 anom all fixenkf yes point no 1990,1992,1995,1996 Finished minor bug in EnKF, small drift in MSL, good SPG
Second_Try F19_tn21 SST 30 anom all fixenkf yes point no 1995 Finished small drift in MSL, good SPG
Third Try F19_tn21 SST 30 anom T and S fixenkf yes point no none Finished weak SPG in reanalysis
Fourth Try F19_tn21 SST 30 anom T and S and Barot. micomserial yes point no 1995 Finished unrealistic
Fifth Try F19_tn21 SST 30 anom all micom_serial yes point no none Finished very mild improvement compare to second
ME F19_G16 SST 30 anom all micom_serial yes point no no ongoing ??
Yiguo_try F19_tn21 SST 30 anom All(superlayer) micom_serial yes point no no ongoing ??
FF_ini_try F19_tn21 SST 30 full all micom_serial yes point no no Finished ??

Data products and diagnostics

Projects using NorCPM

PRACTICE, EPOCASA, PREFACE, INCREASE

Publications, etc.

Peer-review

User Resources

Working group